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Dalal Street

Supply Vs Absorption Trends Across India

Thursday, October 07, 2010

The Real Estate Absorption has been the highest in 2 years in Aug-Sept in most markets. Realtors are slowly exhausting their inventory and have slowed down new launches. Here is what he scenario is in the Metros.

Gurgaon recorded average monthly absorption of 1,726 units/months in Jul/Aug. This is 23% lower than 2Q average. On YTDCY10 basis the absorption run rate is down 4% as compared to CY09 average. Months of unsold inventory are at its record low of ~7 months.

Absorption pick up in Noida/Greater Noida has been astonishing as run rate in CY10 has tripled from 2009 levels. New launches by Jaypee Infratech and Supertech have contributed a lot to this.

Average monthly sale run rate in Jul/Aug (4,186 units/month) in Mumbai (including Navi Mumbai and Thane) declined by a 13%. Within Mumbai, South Central Mumbai have fared the worst with volumes down 40% Q/Q.

Absorption run rate (at 1,950 units/ month) in Bangalore picked up 13% Q/Q in 3Q despite July being a seasonally weak period (Amavasya). Overall residential volumes in Bangalore are up 13% Y/Y. Months of unsold inventory has been coming down consistently over the last two years and is the Worst Market for Investors because of unstable Government and Massive Money Laundering by Local Politicians.

Chennai is witnessing steady pick up in absorption with 3Q10 sales run rate (1,484 units) higher by 21% from 2Q10 levels. Overall residential volumes in Chennai are up by 5% Y/Y.


At 2:14 PM, Anonymous Amit Sharma said...

Gurgaon Market
1) As the prices are going up with out any development/ construction on site, are we heading for a downfall or recession in Real Estate.
2) When people were not ready to buy appt at 2200- 2500 per sq. ft in 2009 and now buying at 3500-4000 on the same location.......i am unable to understand, pls reply
Amit Sharma


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