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Bangalore shines, Gurgaon slumps

Friday, April 25, 2014

Launches in Bangalore bounced back to 10,000-11,000 units/qtr after a slowdown in 4Q CY13, aided by faster approvals. Our recent meetings with Puravankara and Nitesh had highlighted the same. Absorption remains strong in the affordable category (Rs7.5- 15mn/unit, +8% YoY). Inventory levels remain steady around 8 qtrs of sales. Sobha has already reported 25% growth (QoQ) in Bangalore volumes as it had new launches in 1QCY14. While Prestige has not reported its operational update, we expect its presales number to be healthy too

Gurgaon – low demand is keeping developers away from new launches: In 1QCY14, demand was weakest since 1Q CY10 (-63% YoY). Low demand and high inventory (9.4qtrs of sales) is keeping developers away from new launches (-71% YoY, lowest since 2Q CY10). DLF and Unitech have seen
poor sales in 9MFY14 and we expect 4QFY14 to be low too.

Launches in Mumbai increased to ~12,700 units (from avg of 8,000 units/ qtr in CY13). This was driven by launches in certain micro markets of eastern suburbs and Navi Mumbai. Inventory levels remain high at
~10 qtrs of sales as high prices and an uncertain macro-economic environment are keeping buyers away (absorption down 7% to ~7,100 units).


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