2.8 Lakh Crore Worth Residential Projects Stuck in COVID-19

We expect stranded inventory worth Rs2.8 tn [2.8 Lakh Crore] to put debt worth Rs1.2 tn (28% of total real estate loans in India) at risk. Adverse market dynamics and regulatory factors have strained the real estate sector over the past five years, leading to increased capital requirements and diluting return profiles, and in turn plunging ratings of around one-third developers to below investment grade. Covid-19 induced disruptions have dealt another crushing blow.

Real Estate Developer loans nearly doubled to Rs4.2 tn over the past five years. Buoyed by easy access to funding, NBFCs/HFCs aggressively captured this financing demand. Despite severe headwinds for the real estate sector putting about 28% of the loan book at risk, most wholesale NBFCs/HFCs have not reported any significant NPLs as a large proportion (40%) of the real estate book is under moratorium. However, rating-wise breakup of loans sanctioned exposes the poor underlying asset quality.

We estimate the real estate sector would need immediate capital infusion of Rs390-650 bn. While the recent (August 6)window provided by RBI for restructuring will augur well, long-pending NPL recognition of unviable stressed projects is crucial. Recognition of inter-creditor agreement under IBC to provide flexibility in structuring last mile funding.

We can’t quantify the impact on the real estate sector and its lenders, however a wave of consolidation in the sector is imminent. Asset quality challenges for new real estate lending players, now accentuated by higher NPL recognition, coupled with debt market consolidation will lead to the real estate lending business being consolidated with banks and select NBFCs.

Accountablity Slowed Down BlackMoney Dominated Realty

The past few years have been the worst for India’s real estate market, constrained by the implementation of RERA, GST and demonetization ebcause the sector was largely under the influence of corrupt politicians, bureaucrats and tax evading business houses.

Household income has increased at ~10% CAGR over the past three years, while residential real estate prices have increased by less than 1%, thus signifying improving affordability. However, investor interest has reduced due to declining capital appreciation, which remains a challenge.

FDI has almost doubled over the past five years, with inflows increasing primarily towards commercial projects. Interest by foreign players like Blackstone, Canadian Pension Fund has increased considerably in the past five years or so. 

India’s office space has more than doubled in the past decade to 550 mn sq ft. This is still far less than the developed markets, thus signifying considerable future potential. There is increased interest from foreign players to rent office spaces in India, with US having the highest proportion at 44% of total office space acquired in India. Within this, 39% is occupied by IT/ITeS sector, 12% by manufacturing, 13% by BFSI and 10% comprising shared working spaces.

India’s warehousing absorption has tripled over the past three years to ~32 mn sq. ft. in FY2018 from ~10 mn sq. ft. in FY2015 with the quantum of Grade A projects almost quadrupled. Also, vacancy levels have dropped below 10%, thus signifying an improving market scenario.

 

Real Estate in COVID-19 - Slow but not Out

Residential sales for listed developers were down 35% YoY; most reported ~50- 60% YoY decline, except GPL (+70% YoY). Seamless adoption of online booking systems, higher share of NRI sales, and demand for larger homes helped. Collections saw a sharper decline, down 50% YoY, owing to lower construction activity and deferral of demand letters, although lower outflow on construction spend/overheads aided operating cash flows and debt levels. The momentum has improved since July, especially in new bookings, where the outlook on recovery is better than collections/operating cash flows.

Rental collections for Office have been >95% for 1QFY21, with broadly stable occupancy levels and most developers witnessing no material rental re-negotiations. The capex outlook was largely restored across developers, as commentary suggests that the LT demand outlook remains intact and supply from smaller players is likely to falter on lack of funding. Near-term leasing outlook is tepid due to the ongoing lockdown, marginal increase in vacancy levels and muted escalations in rentals are likely for FY21  

Mall developers offered rental waivers (minimum guarantee rental) − ranging over 50-100% − to tenants, for 1QFY21 (lockdown period). Mall owners are also likely to offer graded waivers over a large part of FY21, till business is back to normalcy. Footfalls across malls remain weak, with Bangalore malls reporting just 20-25% footfalls, and overall pan India retail sales down 63% YoY in July (Source: RAI). The hospitality portfolio for most developers reported low-to-nil occupancy (due to the shutdowns) and losses at the Ebitda level. Mall owners expect sales to improve by 3Q during the festive season and with the opening of Multiplexes / Dining, although a full recovery may still be some quarters away.

Realty Developers are sanguine on a recovery in 2Q, and are lining up new launches in 3QFY21, by when labour availability is also expected to reach pre-Covid levels.

Housing for All by 2022

Volume growth is the key growth driver this decade, versus Asset Price Appreciation in the previous decade.

The government's efforts towards Housing for All by 2022 implies multifold increase in supply, which is yet not visible. Cement demand is a good leading indicator for the property sector, according to the panelists.
Demand for completed projects is high due to low execution risk. In the past few quarters, there has been an increase in interest in lower ticket size apartments.

Affordable housing has significant underlying demand (and hence a big opportunity for developers). Plus, multiple incentives announced by the government have resulted in many prominent developers entering this space.

Most of the states are yet to notify RERA rules despite the set deadline of July 30, 2017. Grade A
developers are likely to benefit from RERA due to their stable balance sheet (ability to comply with 70% escrow requirement), good execution capability and better corporate capability to comply with new rules.

Residential Real Estate - Affordability alltime high now

With property prices rangebound / downward across major markets, improving incomes + reduced mortgage rates have improved affordability levels to 10+ year highs. Mortgage rates are now near seven year lows. Historically, whenever mortgages have come close to the 8% mark (vs currently at 8.5%), residential markets have seen a significant boost upwards. Customer confidence on end delivery is lacking and we think once RERA comes in that will get addressed over a 23 year view.

 The latest data points from various primary market sources (Prop equity / JLL) show that unsold inventory across markets has started to come down. This data point was consistently trending up since 2009 and hence we believe a reduction marks a seminal change. Further, new launches falling off 50-80% across markets and the structure of deliveries showing large declines from 2018 onwards implies that market supply is going to be challenged from 2018/19 onwards, in our view. As the RERA bill comes through this unsold supply number we think will have even higher downside risks as we expect many new projects to be simply cancelled as many developers find the economics unviable.

Looking at private market actions, we think the private investor focus is moving into residential real estate either via credit/equity strategy and fund flows have increased. Also reflected in increased lending appetite in many NBFCs as well. Further many other senior long cycle executives/ leaders in the business we note too have quit to start owned ventures in the residential realty business.

RERA registrations in Mumbai Sluggish

As of June 15, 2017, only 16 Mumbai projects (plus 4 in Thane; 32 overall Maharashtra) are displayed as registered on the Maharashtra RERA website, which we believe are those approved by the regulator. While there is likelihood that more projects may have been registered but not approved as yet (hence not displayed), total approvals appear quite low versus the quantum of ongoing projects—800 plus, we estimate. In our view, the poor registration statistics could be due to developers taking time to understand process details and aligning their internal processes with RERA's provisions.

Channel checks with GPL, Oberoi and SRL (exposed to Mumbai residential market) indicate that they are in an advanced stage of background preparation for registering their projects under Maharashtra RERA. This, according to them, is a time consuming process and are seeking expert guidance to adhere to the regulations. They expect to begin the registration process over coming weeks and are confident of meeting the July 31 deadline; they do not anticipate any disruption in their project sales. Failure to meet the deadline will prevent them from advertising & selling unregistered projects.

In view of the poor registration momentum in Mumbai, we see risk of a meaningful proportion of ongoing projects remaining unregistered at the end of the deadline. New launches in Mumbai have slowed down pending RERA registration and we expect this to continue for coming few months until developers align themselves with RERA requirements. We, hence, expect new sales to slowdown in the Mumbai market post the deadline, with steady recovery in ensuing months as registration of ongoing projects and new launches pick up.

Govt Housing Benefits only for Low Income Groups

The credit-linked subsidy scheme (CLSS) under the Prime Minister Awas Yojana (PMAY) will help reduce the IRR on home loans by about 100 bps or imply 2-10% discount on purchase of new property, higher benefit at lower ticket sizes. The scheme alone may not be a catalyst for making a purchase decision; better employment opportunities and improving affordability will have to play a greater role, in our view.

The MIG segment will be included in this scheme from FY2018 to provide the following: (1) 4% subsidy for loans up to Rs0.9 mn and (2) 3% for loans up to Rs1.2 mn. Interest subsidy is credited upfront to the loan account of beneficiaries through lending institutions (banks/HFCs) resulting in reduced effective loan liability. The calculated subsidy for loans across categories is Rs0.23 mn. This benefit is only available to first-time buyers.

The CLSS for the MIG saves around 5-8% on Rs3-4 mn/unit home. With increasing ticket size, the impact of such subsidy reduces. While household income cap of Rs1.8 mn/annum can allow homes between Rs7-9 mn/unit, the benefits of the subsidy don’t stand much (about 3%).

 Most units offered by listed developers in metros are above Rs5 mn/unit and hence the benefits of such schemes are limited. We expect more developers to launch homes up to 60 sq. m. carpet in FY2018 (to gain benefits under 80-IBA), which could increase volumes; but value contribution will be limited considering the share of such units to the overall area under-construction. Most developers under coverage offer limited affordable housing homes today.  

CLSS is most beneficial for borrowers in loan of about Rs2 mn A high income cap provides relief to a large proportion of borrowers though, at the higherend would imply just about 3% benefit. The implied discount is meaningful at 5-8% in case of loan of Rs2-3 mn, which comprises about 25% of total loans of housing finance companies. With increasing ticket size, the impact of such subsidy reduces; it's about 3% in the higher-end.

Investment / Speculation Made Less Attractive in realty - Budget 2017

Real Estate investors / speculators in India historically benefitted from full offset available on house property income loss (property rent -  home loan interest). However budget 2017 has capped the loss offset to Rs 0.2mn inline with self-occupied interest exemption.

Based on our analysis, the move increases funding cost by 30% with investors return lowering by 3-5% in the first year. In addition clause introduced on reducing holding period for long term capital gains from 3 to 2 years will reduce the exit cost for investors.

We believe these provision will significantly impact investor demand (already declining) and increase supply in secondary market as house economics worsen materially (4% capital appreciation required to break even) leading to headwind on property pricing. For completed unsold apartments, developers have been given an year’s exemption for tax on notional rentals.

Affordable Housing Darling of Government
Government gave infrastructure status to affordable housing which will result in better access to funding (including land funding), longer tenure loans and lower cost of funding. In addition tax incentives for affordable projects were made inline with practice as 1) size definition changed from built up to carpet.  2) period of completion of project for claiming deduction increased from existing 3 years to 5 years (more realistic timeline in our view). We expect more players to focus on this segment as these clauses could improve return profile by 15-20%.