Merrill Expects the Street to be positively surprised by a 10-15% price increase with sustained volume growth in Bangalore over the next 12 months. Key reasons for strong trends are: 1) expected high-income growth for IT employees (50-60% of demand) led by attrition and wage hikes, 2) falling inventory levels due to lower launches and strong sales, and 3) four fold increase in IT/ITeS employees who can afford houses in Bangalore in last four years. Residential real estate prices in the city are still 10-15% below the 2007 peak vs Mumbai/NCR at over 10-25%.
Residential prices in Bangalore have increased by 10-15% from the lows seen in 2009, but continue to be below the peaks seen in 2007 by 10-15% in most of the micro markets. In the next 12 months, we expect the developers to increase prices by another 10-15% to reach the peak levels. However, prices in most of the micro markets for mid-income housing would still be around Rs3,300-3,500/sq ft.
Tuesday, September 21, 2010
Land Reforms - Likely at a Higher Price
Unlike China, India doesn't have any control on Costs. Right from day one we have said that India can never replicate the Chinese model of SEZs and you know the mess 4 years after we have said.
As India moves to a higher growth trajectory, industrialization and urbanization will necessitate the continuing need for land acquisition. There will constantly be issues that will warrant an effective balancing act between development and the EEE. There could be delays and at times politics may prevail over economics. However, if land reforms do come through, it should speed up economic development but will most surely come at a higher financial cost for business and be supported by higher socio-economic pay-off.
This makes reform imperative on (i) land acquisition related issues and (ii) viable resettlement and re-habilitation policies. To this end, the recent political focus and proposed amendments in land acquisition/mining bills (annuity and royalty/profit sharing) - if implemented could unlock development value that's currently trapped in land.
As India moves to a higher growth trajectory, industrialization and urbanization will necessitate the continuing need for land acquisition. There will constantly be issues that will warrant an effective balancing act between development and the EEE. There could be delays and at times politics may prevail over economics. However, if land reforms do come through, it should speed up economic development but will most surely come at a higher financial cost for business and be supported by higher socio-economic pay-off.
This makes reform imperative on (i) land acquisition related issues and (ii) viable resettlement and re-habilitation policies. To this end, the recent political focus and proposed amendments in land acquisition/mining bills (annuity and royalty/profit sharing) - if implemented could unlock development value that's currently trapped in land.
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Omaxe's Outlook for Industry + Regulator
Omaxe Ltd CEO, Rohtas Goel has the following views for the Industry and the Real Estate Regulator.
Indian Real Estate is still in the initial stage of business cycle. There is still gap of more than 25 million dwelling units and 90% of demand falls in affordable housing category. It is going to be a long-term game and this business shall be perceived as any other manufacturing business where the play will be more of volume than value. There are still lots of unorganized player in the market which give immense scope for branded players like us to explore new territories.
real Estate Regulator in India - The Draft Bill on Model Real Estate Act, which is a need of the hour, is meant to promote planned and healthy real estate development with a view to protection of consumer interest on one hand and to facilitate smooth and speedy construction on the other. Moreover, one of the prime objectives of the bill is to remove malpractices and fly-by-night developers. The initiative taken by the ministry is commendable and seems to be a step in the right direction. However, there are certain provisions proposed which may defeat the very purpose for which the act has been proposed. According to planning commission survey, there’s a shortage of approx. 24.7 mn housing in India and if the draft bill is introduced in its present form then it would hamper rather promoting India’s real estate development.
Besides, the developers that are working to meet the acute shortage of dwelling units, which is in country’s interest, will be refrained from working at the desired pace. The proposed act in its present form will add costs and delays to the lifecycle of the project. In our opinion simplifying the approval procedures, facilitation, regulation, control and growth of real estate development and safeguarding interest of all stake holders should be its objectives.
Indian Real Estate is still in the initial stage of business cycle. There is still gap of more than 25 million dwelling units and 90% of demand falls in affordable housing category. It is going to be a long-term game and this business shall be perceived as any other manufacturing business where the play will be more of volume than value. There are still lots of unorganized player in the market which give immense scope for branded players like us to explore new territories.
real Estate Regulator in India - The Draft Bill on Model Real Estate Act, which is a need of the hour, is meant to promote planned and healthy real estate development with a view to protection of consumer interest on one hand and to facilitate smooth and speedy construction on the other. Moreover, one of the prime objectives of the bill is to remove malpractices and fly-by-night developers. The initiative taken by the ministry is commendable and seems to be a step in the right direction. However, there are certain provisions proposed which may defeat the very purpose for which the act has been proposed. According to planning commission survey, there’s a shortage of approx. 24.7 mn housing in India and if the draft bill is introduced in its present form then it would hamper rather promoting India’s real estate development.
Besides, the developers that are working to meet the acute shortage of dwelling units, which is in country’s interest, will be refrained from working at the desired pace. The proposed act in its present form will add costs and delays to the lifecycle of the project. In our opinion simplifying the approval procedures, facilitation, regulation, control and growth of real estate development and safeguarding interest of all stake holders should be its objectives.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Dream of Slum Free Mumbai
Slum-free Mumbai: Myth to Realty - Steps envisaged. The CEO, SRA reiterated government focus on slum rehab in Mumbai, with 0.2m houses under construction (vs. 0.15m delivered). He also highlighted plans to amend some laws in favour of private developer participation in North Mumbai rehab.
Commercial Property: Road ahead. Commercial recovery can be faster than estimated, given improving transactions, albeit only in certain markets. IT/ITES will remain the most important space absorber, followed by telecom and financial services sectors. Although recovery will be micro-market specific, Bangalore emerges the best-placed for commercial recovery amongst other metros.
Developers reiterate more focus on execution of projects with continual focus on residential projects as well as reducing debt. Cash-rich companies are acquiring land across city centres and suburbs. Overall, Bangalore is the steadiest market with inventory being delivered and new project launches at lower-than-peak rates.
Commercial Property: Road ahead. Commercial recovery can be faster than estimated, given improving transactions, albeit only in certain markets. IT/ITES will remain the most important space absorber, followed by telecom and financial services sectors. Although recovery will be micro-market specific, Bangalore emerges the best-placed for commercial recovery amongst other metros.
Developers reiterate more focus on execution of projects with continual focus on residential projects as well as reducing debt. Cash-rich companies are acquiring land across city centres and suburbs. Overall, Bangalore is the steadiest market with inventory being delivered and new project launches at lower-than-peak rates.
Tuesday, September 07, 2010
DTC Bill: SEZs Look OK -
Changes to the Direct Tax Code (DTC) Bill introduced in the parliament last week should retain the attractiveness of (new) Special Economic Zones (SEZs) for both developers and tenants at least for the next 3-4 years.
Profit-linked tax exemption (100% for a block of 10 years in the first 15 years) for developers for SEZs notified before April 1, 2012.
Profit-linked tax exemption (100% for the first five years, 50% for the next five years, and 50% of invested profits for a further five) for tenants (such as IT companies) commencing operations before April 1, 2014 (April 1, 2011 in earlier draft).
One disappointment was not in the original draft – imposition of Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) at 20% for both tenants and developers. MAT credit can be offset over ensuing 15-year period.
The new proposals in the DTC Bill should address industry concern about the invested capital, such as land acquisition, in (small format – 10-50 hectare) SEZ projects and should ensure better occupancy. Large format (a few thousand acres) SEZs (e.g., Worldcity Jaipur) could face challenges beyond the medium term to attract tenants, if these rules remain unchanged.
Profit-linked tax exemption (100% for a block of 10 years in the first 15 years) for developers for SEZs notified before April 1, 2012.
Profit-linked tax exemption (100% for the first five years, 50% for the next five years, and 50% of invested profits for a further five) for tenants (such as IT companies) commencing operations before April 1, 2014 (April 1, 2011 in earlier draft).
One disappointment was not in the original draft – imposition of Minimum Alternate Tax (MAT) at 20% for both tenants and developers. MAT credit can be offset over ensuing 15-year period.
The new proposals in the DTC Bill should address industry concern about the invested capital, such as land acquisition, in (small format – 10-50 hectare) SEZ projects and should ensure better occupancy. Large format (a few thousand acres) SEZs (e.g., Worldcity Jaipur) could face challenges beyond the medium term to attract tenants, if these rules remain unchanged.
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