Bangalore 2QCY13 saw new launches momentum continue at ~10,000 units for the third consecutive qtr. Historically, annual launches in B’lore averaged at ~26,000 units in last 3 yrs. However, if the current launches momentum continues, CY13 might witness ~40,000 unit launches. With rising unsold inventory, we believe this can become a concern going forward. Developers are launching new projects purely aiming at cash inflows when liquidity is poor. Timely execution is questionable outside organized developers and we advise caution.
Bangalore residential sales growth is flattening and current spurt is purely fueled by new launches by unorganized developers at reasonable prices and rising investor interest. Although affordability and expected softening of mortgage rates in CY13/14 are positives; execution delays and rise in number of investors are potential dampeners.
Residential prices in Mumbai are finally correcting! Prices in new launch projects across the city are lower than market averages by 10%. Discounts are deeper in areas where prices quote above Rs30mn per unit. Our calculations show that discounts via 20:80 schemes equate to ~10-12% cut in total acquisition cost. The
10 Yr CAGR growth in Mumbai resi prices was 14.7% in 2011 which has come down to 13.5% now as prices have either remained flattish or fallen across micromarkets. We foresee prices to remain under pressure for next 5-6 quarters till the 0 Yr CAGR comes to more acceptable levels of 11-12%.
Wednesday, July 10, 2013
Tuesday, July 09, 2013
Gurgaon’s loss = Noida’s gain - NCR Realty Trends this Quarter
Although demand was ahead of new supply once again in Gurgaon, absorption rate softened further for 4th consecutive quarter in 2QCY13. We attribute this trend to rising prices through CY12; weakening consumer sentiments; 1H has been historically weaker than 2H and slowdown in new launches by developers. Despite considerable fall in absorption rate from peak of 25.5% in Q1CY12 to 20% in 2QCY13, developers have held prices in primary market. If this fall in demand continues over next 2-3 quarters (likely), we foresee price cuts in primary markets to resurrect sales and cash flows.
Our conversation with brokers reveals considerable price softening in secondary markets (up to 15%) in Gurgaon as projects launched in 2008-09 get delivered in 2013 and investors look at exits. This has exactly been our worry for Gurgaon ‘cause the city houses large investor base who will continue to seek exits through 2013 as projects launched in 2010-11 (50,000 units) advance towards completion. We believe only change in sentiments supported by mortgage rate cuts and price cuts can reverse this trend.
Noida sustained its rise in absorption rate from a low of 7% in Q3CY11 (farmer land agitation) to 14% in Q2CY13. uptick in execution by organized developers such as 3C, Mahagun, Jaypee, ATS etc. and rise in investor interest as Gurgaon slowed down. Noida across its sub-markets offers housing at 30-50% lower prices than corresponding sub-markets in Gurgaon. For example – Prime Gurgaon trades at Rs15k-18k per
sq ft whereas Noida trades at Rs10-13k per sq ft. New Gurgaon trades at Rs5k- 6k per sq ft whereas upcoming Noida trades at Rs3.5k-4k per sqft.
Noida will continue to witness far lower migration than Gurgaon leading to suppressed housing demand from end-users. Investor interest has risen purely due to its affordability as compared to Gurgaon and vicinity to Delhi. However, slow execution and slower than expected capital appreciation in prices will keep further rise in investor interest at bay. Market dynamics in Greater Noida is even worse compared to Noida.
Our conversation with brokers reveals considerable price softening in secondary markets (up to 15%) in Gurgaon as projects launched in 2008-09 get delivered in 2013 and investors look at exits. This has exactly been our worry for Gurgaon ‘cause the city houses large investor base who will continue to seek exits through 2013 as projects launched in 2010-11 (50,000 units) advance towards completion. We believe only change in sentiments supported by mortgage rate cuts and price cuts can reverse this trend.
Noida sustained its rise in absorption rate from a low of 7% in Q3CY11 (farmer land agitation) to 14% in Q2CY13. uptick in execution by organized developers such as 3C, Mahagun, Jaypee, ATS etc. and rise in investor interest as Gurgaon slowed down. Noida across its sub-markets offers housing at 30-50% lower prices than corresponding sub-markets in Gurgaon. For example – Prime Gurgaon trades at Rs15k-18k per
sq ft whereas Noida trades at Rs10-13k per sq ft. New Gurgaon trades at Rs5k- 6k per sq ft whereas upcoming Noida trades at Rs3.5k-4k per sqft.
Noida will continue to witness far lower migration than Gurgaon leading to suppressed housing demand from end-users. Investor interest has risen purely due to its affordability as compared to Gurgaon and vicinity to Delhi. However, slow execution and slower than expected capital appreciation in prices will keep further rise in investor interest at bay. Market dynamics in Greater Noida is even worse compared to Noida.
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