Saturday, October 06, 2012

BUY Land Where Gandhi Family Buys for Maximum Appreciation

This Tip is for the HNI who wish to Speculate in the Real Estate Market. Uesterday, India Against Corruption members have unearthed the nexus between DLF and Robert vadra [Son in law of Sonia Gandhi]. Robert has amassed Rs 1,000 Cr of Real Estate which includes some Land Bank. So Real Estate Speculators can BUY Lands near Robert Vadra's and Get Rich Qucikly. Here is list of Land Parcels owned by Robert Vadra's Company,
  1. Land in Bikaner - Search Bikaner Sub-Registrar's Office and see where "North India IT Parks Pvt. Ltd." has bought 161 Acres of Land in the City and you can start gobbling the neighboring parcels
  2. Search Bikaner's Sub-Regisrrar office for Lands Owned by these companies Real Earth Estates Pvt. Ltd., Sky Light Realty Private Ltd., Sky Light Hospitality Private Ltd and bUY Land in the Vicinity for jackpot.
  3. Investment by Gandhi Family in Manesar - Sky Light Hospitality Private Ltd is the Official Land Owner
  4. Palwal - Sky Light Realty Private Ltd is the Holding company of Land for Gandhi Family
  5. BUY Land in Hassanpur in the vicinity where Real Earth Estates Pvt. Ltd has bought land
  6. BUY Land in Mewat (Haryana) wherever Real Earth Estates Pvt. Ltd is holding land
These are Speculative Investments in Nature and are meant for HNIs or Super Rich Individuals Only. Looks like Robert Vadra wanted to Develop an IT Park and a SEZ in Bikaner.

Friday, October 05, 2012

Bangalore - Mid-Size Apartments Rule the Roost

Ears on the Ground Survey indicate to us that that mid-ticket size products are best for the market and this is which has seen the most volume absorption. We could define mid ticket size units as those in the ticket size of Rs5-10m. This segment provides a good combination of investment-worthiness, rental yield and end-user demand. In terms of area, this means unit sizes of 1,800-2,500sft apartments and, in terms of rate, a range of Rs4,000-5,000 psft.

The buyer segment (10-year work experience in IT/ITES sector) has on an average household gross income of Rs1.2-Rs1.8m. This makes price in terms of the household income in the range of 4-5x, which is an affordable pricing bracket in our view.

Over the past couple of years, we have seen a slew of launches in the premium-housing segment with ticket size of Rs30m+, primarily focused in the new-emergent areas of North Bangalore. Observers believe that the market for luxury launches is weak and they have not seen good absorption.

The buyer base comprises primarily of IT professionals looking to invest surplus cash. At the other end of the spectrum is the Delhi-NCR market, which is entirely broker investor driven, dependent on bulk sales. The Mumbai market is between the two extremes. In the Bangalore market, developers do not bulk-sell to a committed broker-investor base. Rather, they depend upon branding and word-of-mouth from existing buyers to attract new buyers.

Bangalore has developers that are focusing on affordable housing (Purvankara Provident, Value Budget Housing Company) and they have started to offer viable products. However, their scalability and execution challenges are yet to be tested over the longer run.

Robust Sales for Sobha Developers

Management has targeted pre-sales of Rs20 bn and 3.75 mn sqft for FY13. The company has reported Rs10.1 bn (up 28% yoy) and 1.78 mn sqft of presales in the first half of the year, which is traditionally the weaker half. We believe Sobha has maintained its robust sales growth through periodic launches and entry into new markets. Sobha is poised to launch 6 mn sqft in the upcoming 4 quarters in several locations in Bangalore, Thrissur, Pune, and Mysore.

Average prices increased to Rs5,575/sqft in 2QFY13 from Rs5,196/sqft in 2QFY12, up 7%. However pricing declined 3% qoq due to increased sales in Thrissur (lower pricing), while sales in Gurgaon (higher pricing) were flattish qoq.

In 2QFY13, Sobha sold 0.59 mn sqft in Bangalore, 0.14 mn sqft in Gurgaon, 0.12 mn sqft in Thrissur, and 0.1 mn sqft combined in Chennai, Coimbatore, Mysore and Pune. Qoq growth of 13% was driven by strong growth in Thrissur (168% qoq) and Bangalore (14% qoq).

Monday, September 17, 2012

Residential launches continue to see success in Gurgaon, Bangalore

Recent data points indicated continued strong residential demand in Gurgaon and Bangalore.

Various launches in the recent past have been received well: (1) Godrej Properties launched Godrej Summit and sold entire Phase I of 1 mn sq. ft at price point of Rs5,500/sqft, (2) DLF launched Independent Floors in Gurgaon, (3) Phoenix Mills sold 275 apartments in Phase I of “One Bangalore West” at selling rate of Rs7,000+/sqft, and (4) Sobha recently launched 2 new projects in Bangalore – Sobha Morzaria Grandeur, a luxury project at Dairy Circle and Cedar at Sobha Forestview on Kanakpura Road.

Furthermore, selling prices achieved indicate that buoyant sales are not a result of pricing discounts. We believe demand environment can get a further boost in case of improvement in economic sentiment and reduction in interest rates. A 50 bp reduction in interest rates can reduce EMI of 20-year loan by 3%.

Robust demand in Gurgaon will likely help DLF as it launches residential projects with cumulative sales values of Rs60+ bn in 2HFY12. Success of ‘Godrej Summit’ indicates Sobha’s largest project (Sobha International City in Gurgaon, 15% of NAV) will see continued traction. DLF is planning to launch 2.5 mn sqft in Phase V in Gurgaon in 2HFY13.

Thursday, August 09, 2012

Property Buyers Must Also get Access to CERSAI Database

Just like how CIBIL maintains a database of Credit Borrowers from various financial institutions of India, CERSAI maintains a Database of all Properties Mortgaged to any financial institution in India.

It is not uncommon to see Indians involving in selling a pledged property or selling it to multiple people. In all these cases, CERSAI wants to become the central repository and open its Database to Potential BUYERS of Property.

Tuesday, July 10, 2012

Bangalore Steady Sales + Gurgaon Lowest Unsold Inventory

In Gurgaon Micro Market, Quarterly demand (sales) has been ahead or in-line with supply (new launches) since the last 12 quarters with the exception of Q1CY2011. This clearly indicates robust demand for residential units in the market. We foresee this trend to continue led by large and rising migrant population aspiring to live and work in Gurgaon. In terms of affordability, Gurgaon continues to remain at the cusp of affordability (defined as monthly mortgage installment / monthly income) which has supported resilience in demand.

Absorption rate was flat in 2Q led by slowdown in new launches (supply). Unsold inventory tapered further in 2Q as demand surpassed supply yet again in Gurgaon. The unsold inventory (represented in # of quarters required to exhaust unsold inventory) has been less than 4 quarters since 1QCY10, which is the lowest compared to other cities across the country.

Sales volume in Bangalore remained steady despite significant reduction in new launches. We believe the same is due to affordable prices which have historically seen annual increments in single digits over last 8-10 years. This particular nature of Bangalore has attracted more end-users and long-term investors over speculative investors as upside from housing projects has remained limited.

Unsold inventory in Bangalore city reduced primarily led by steady sales volume and 30% dip in new project launches. We believe Bangalore developers recognize rise in unsold inventory and some plan to launch new projects once the unsold inventory figure attains more comfortable levels.

Monday, July 09, 2012

Mumbai - Upward Pricing for Premium Properties

Recent new launches in Mumbai MRDA include – Godrej Chembur (BSP - Rs16k psf), Wadhwa Dadar (Rs25.5k psf), Bombay Dyeing Dadar ICC1/2 (roughly Rs28k psf), Lodha Dioro Wadala (Rs15k psf), Godrej Platinum Vikhroli (Rs12k psf) and IBREL Worli Blu
(Rs50k psf).

To us, most of these projects appear to be priced at a meaningful premium (15-40%) to the neighborhood and are, therefore, losing investor demand. Project specifications (large/mixed format, fit outs, common area, amenities) are improving sharply to compare with those in the more advanced cities in the world. These Developers continue to prefer margins (pricing) at the cost of asset turnover (volumes).

Monday, July 02, 2012

Mumbai Residential - Lower Prices for New Projects

Here are the views of Mr. Ramesh Nair, Jones Lang LaSalle India on the Mumbai Residential Property Market.

He expects turnaround in Mumbai residential segment in next six months as developers launch new projects at lower prices. The key reason for prices holding up was due to sharp drop of over 50% in new launches which neutralized the 30% drop in absorption. However, with new DCR (Development control regulations) in place, launches are picking pace and should lead to improved sales volume.

The affordability in Mumbai market can improve only if infrastructure projects are implemented opening up new land supply. He believes redevelopment and slum rehab will provide future land supply (up to ~13,000 acres) in Mumbai island city.