Tuesday, December 29, 2009

Mumbai - Good Recovery, but Rentals Slower

Spate of new launches in the last 2-3 months, well spread over the city landscape.

Based on the market feedback, we understand that the volume off take was quick at the lower end of these price bands and slow at the upper end. Primary sale prices have risen rapidly (10-20%) over the last 2-3 months, around 15% shy of end 2007 peak levels.

Story will be different this time around, and unlike the previous bull market (prices went up 3-5x) prices will rise gradually. Residential rentals, though up from the bottom, are still at 25-30% below the end 2007 peak level (due to new supply), we believe. Further, Real Estate across the World suggests that rentals are a better reflection of the underlying demand, which will ramp slowly in view of significant supply.

On all India basis, we continue to believe that F10 will be the year of volume recovery, leading to 10% price increase in F11.

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