Morgan in a Property Ground Survey of Delhi has the following report,
New launch momentum continues (35.5k in 1Q, the highest in the last nine quarters) and new sales were strong – 21.6 k units pre-sold. Gurgaon prices appear to be rising quickly and Noida volumes appear too good to sustain.
Three corners of Gurgaon offer “something for everyone” – Sectors 92-110 (IBREL, Raheja and Mahindra Lifespace launches – Rs2,200- 2,900 psf), Sector 66-70 (UT, Ansal, BPTP launches – Rs2,700-3,900 psf) and Phase V (DLF, Ireo – Rs5,000-8,000 psf). Volumes are healthy – new sales (4000 units = trailing four-quarter average) and new launches remain disciplined. However, primary market pricing (Ireo’s Arch, DLF Phase V, UT’s Sunbreaze) appear 25% higher in the last six to nine months.
New sales in 1Q was 3.5x Gurgaon (14k units); new launches were 6x Gurgaon (30k units); and available unsold stock (vacancies) was 2.2x Gurgaon (33k units). Intuitively, Noida should have all numbers lower than Gurgaon given that its stock of commercial properties (proxy on size of local economy) is less than one-third of Gurgaon’s. Our channel checks indicate that NCR has a fair component of broker-driven (underwritten) sales, which may be returned to developers if unsold. The silver lining in Noida is good pricing discipline so far (Rs2,900-3,300 psf).
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